Hi. I'm Vijay Jayaram.

A highly accomplished and experienced data scientist, adept at using data to inform and guide strategic business decisions. Seeking a role where I can contribute effectively, whether independently, as a team member, or as a team leader.

Learn about my skills

Here's all my Skill Set and Tools I have used.

Python

Google Colab

Jupyter

Tableau

SQL

LLAMA

Open AI

Project Management

Education and Certifications

Here’s some stuff I made recently.


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Project Details

Patient No Show Prediction

Technology Used:

Pandas | numpy | matplotlib | sklearn | seaborn | catboost | PyCaret

Project Description:

Extracted appointment and patient demographic data from the EMR. Merged and preprocessed the data to get the raw data for this project. Organized, cleaned, and preprocessed data for analysis. Conducted data preprocessing, EDA, and feature engineering on 7,5000+ records to identify key predictors; implemented a train-test split and validated the model with unseen data. Performed no-show predictions on trained/test/unseen data using PyCaret libraries. Achieved an accuracy of 90%


Top 10 Facilities with Highest Amount of Patient Visits

Key Observations:

  • Dominance of Major Centers: ZEBRA MAIN MEDICAL CENTER and TRFM DALLAS lead the chart, indicating these are primary healthcare hubs within the region. Their high patient volumes necessitate robust resource management and possibly expansions to meet the increasing demand.
  • Telehealth Adoption: The significant number of visits to RCPC TELEHEALTH and ZEBRA TELEHEALTH facilities highlights the growing acceptance and reliance on remote healthcare services. This trend might have been accelerated by the pandemic and continues to be a viable option for many patients.
  • Notable Increase in RCPC Facilities: Multiple RCPC facilities are among the top 10, suggesting that the RCPC network is a crucial player in the region’s healthcare delivery.
Insights:
  • Focused Resource Allocation: Facilities like ZEBRA MAIN MEDICAL CENTER and TRFM DALLAS may require additional staffing and resources to handle the high volume of patient visits efficiently.
  • Enhanced Telehealth Services: With significant usage of telehealth services, continued investment in improving digital healthcare infrastructure could enhance patient experiences and access to care.
  • Targeted Safety Measures: Given the steady rise in patient visits, especially in facilities like RCPC CLEBURNE and RCPC LAS CALINUS, targeted safety measures and infrastructure improvements could help manage the growing traffic and ensure quality care.

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No Shows Totals by Each Weekday

Key Observations:

  • Highest No-Shows on Tuesday: With 267 no-shows, Tuesday has the highest occurrence, indicating potential issues with patient availability or scheduling on this day.
  • Consistently High on Thursday: Thursday follows closely with 251 no-shows, suggesting it also faces similar scheduling challenges.
  • Lower No-Shows on Monday: Monday has the fewest no-shows at 115, which could indicate better patient adherence to appointments or fewer scheduled appointments.
  • Mid-Week Variation: Wednesday and Friday have moderate no-show rates, showing a varied pattern of patient attendance through the mid-week period.
Insights:
  • Potential Causes: The high no-show rates on Tuesday and Thursday could be due to mid-week fatigue, conflicting personal schedules, or other external factors. Understanding these causes can help in creating better appointment reminders or alternative scheduling options.
  • Actionable Strategies: Implementing reminder systems, rescheduling policies, and possibly offering incentives for attending appointments on high no-show days (Tuesday and Thursday) could help reduce these numbers.
  • Monday as a Strategic Day: With lower no-shows on Monday, this day could be strategically used for scheduling critical or follow-up appointments, ensuring higher patient attendance and optimal resource utilization.

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Top 10 Payers

Key Observations:

  • Dominance of Self-Pay: Self-Pay leads significantly with 22.01% of appointments, indicating a large portion of patients prefer or are required to pay out-of-pocket for services.
  • Prominent Role of MEDICARE PART B: With 13.83%, MEDICARE PART B is the second highest, showing its importance for the patient population, likely serving a considerable elderly demographic.
  • BCBS TX: As the third highest at 12.74%, BCBS TX is a major insurer for this patient group, indicating strong market penetration in the region.
  • Diverse Insurance Types: The remaining insurance types, from MEDICAL MANAGEMENT to UHC, collectively cover a wide range of patients, though each represents a smaller percentage individually.
Insights:
  • Insurance Utilization Trends: The data reflects significant reliance on Self-Pay and major insurance providers like MEDICARE PART B and BCBS TX. This might be due to the specific demographics and economic conditions of the patient population.
  • Potential for Financial Planning: The high percentage of Self-Pay patients suggests the need for financial planning services or payment options to support patients who may face difficulties with out-of-pocket expenses.
  • Targeted Insurance Partnerships: Providers might consider strengthening partnerships with top insurers like BCBS TX and MEDICARE PART B to streamline services and potentially negotiate better terms for patients.
Strategic Considerations:
  • Enhanced Support for Self-Pay Patients: Offering flexible payment plans or financial counseling could help manage the high percentage of Self-Pay appointments and improve patient satisfaction.
  • Focus on Elderly Care: With a significant portion of appointments under MEDICARE PART B, targeting services for elderly care, including specialized programs or outreach, could better serve this demographic.
  • Broad Insurance Acceptance: Maintaining or expanding acceptance of diverse insurance providers ensures coverage for a wide patient base, enhancing accessibility to healthcare services.

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Correlation

Key Observations:

  • Age:
    • Voice Enabled: Has a moderately negative correlation (-0.25) with age, indicating that older patients might be less likely to have voice-enabled services.
    • Txt Enabled: Also has a negative correlation (-0.19) with age, suggesting older patients are less likely to have text-enabled services.
    • Patient Email and Web Enabled: Show moderate negative correlations (-0.12 and -0.13, respectively), implying older patients might be less digitally connected.
    • Is Televisit and Visit Status: Have negligible negative correlations with age (-0.10 and -0.02), indicating minimal impact.
  • Is Televisit:
    • Web Enabled: Shows a mild positive correlation (0.15) with tele-visits, suggesting patients using telehealth are more likely to use web-enabled services.
    • Patient Email: Exhibits a small positive correlation (0.14), indicating a slight tendency for tele-visit patients to have emails registered.
    • Other Factors: Shows minimal correlation with text and voice-enabled services.
  • Visit Status:
    • The correlations with other variables are generally weak (between -0.04 and 0.04), suggesting visit status doesn't significantly influence or is influenced by other factors in the matrix.
  • Patient Email:
    • Web Enabled: Shows a very strong positive correlation (0.94), indicating patients with registered emails are highly likely to have web-enabled services.
    • Txt Enabled: Has a moderate positive correlation (0.25) with email, suggesting a trend towards having text-enabled services if they have an email.
    • Voice Enabled: Exhibits a lower positive correlation (0.13) with email use.
    • Age: As mentioned, has a negative correlation, indicating older patients may have fewer registered emails.
  • Txt Enabled:
    • Voice Enabled: Shows a moderate positive correlation (0.56), indicating a tendency for patients with text-enabled services to also have voice-enabled services.
    • Web Enabled: Has a moderate positive correlation (0.29), implying a connection between text and web-enabled services.
    • Age: Displays a negative correlation, suggesting older patients may be less likely to have these services.
  • Voice Enabled:
    • Txt Enabled: As noted, has a moderate positive correlation (0.56).
    • Web Enabled: Shows a weaker positive correlation (0.14) with having voice-enabled services.
    • Age: Exhibits a moderately negative correlation, as discussed.
  • Web Enabled:
    • Patient Email: Has a very strong positive correlation (0.94), reiterating that those with web-enabled services are highly likely to have an email registered.
    • Txt Enabled and Voice Enabled: Show positive correlations (0.29 and 0.14, respectively), indicating a trend towards multiple digital service enablements.
    • Age: Reflects a slight negative correlation.
Insights:
  • Digital Divide: Older patients are generally less likely to have digital services (text, voice, email, web), which could indicate a digital divide in healthcare service accessibility.
  • Interconnectivity of Services: There is a strong interconnectivity between different digital services (email, web, text, voice), suggesting that patients tend to either have multiple services enabled or none at all.
  • Telehealth Trends: Patients using telehealth (tele-visit) are mildly more likely to use web-enabled services and have an email registered, indicating a digital-forward approach in telehealth usage.

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Feature Importance

Overview

The feature importance plot visualizes which features have the most significant impact on the CatBoost model's predictions. The x-axis represents variable importance, while the y-axis lists the features. Here are the details:

Key Features and Their Importance

  • apt_provider (~34): This is the most influential feature, significantly affecting the model's predictions.
  • visit_type (~15): The second most important feature, indicating the type of visit plays a crucial role.
  • practice_RCPCKGRM0818 (~5): This specific practice has a notable impact, though less than the top two features.
  • patient_city (~4): The patient's city contributes to the predictions, possibly indicating location-based factors.
Insights
  • Dominance of apt_provider: With the highest importance score, the apt_provider feature is critical for the model. This suggests that the provider of the appointment has significant predictive power, possibly due to variations in provider practices or specialties.
  • Role of visit_type: The type of visit is also highly important, indicating that different visit types might have distinct characteristics that influence the model's predictions.
  • Impact of Specific Practices: Both practice_RCPCKGRM0818 and practice_ZEBKARLG109478 are significant, suggesting that specific practices have unique factors affecting the outcomes.
  • Location and Insurance: Features like patient_city and insurance highlight the importance of demographic and socio-economic factors in the model's predictions.
  • Temporal Features: The day of the week and specific month contribute to the model, indicating potential temporal patterns in the data.
Strategic Considerations
  • Provider Training and Standardization: Given the high importance of apt_provider, focusing on standardizing practices and training across providers could enhance model accuracy.
  • Tailored Services: Understanding the role of visit_type could lead to more tailored healthcare services, improving patient outcomes and satisfaction.
  • Resource Allocation: Recognizing the impact of specific practices and locations can guide better resource allocation and targeted interventions.
  • Temporal Adjustments: Accounting for day-of-week and month-specific variations can improve scheduling and operational efficiency.

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Conclusions and Recommendations:

Conclusions

Recommendations

Enabled double booking of some time slots and proactive patient reminders based on predictions. Improved physician time utilization by 30% and overall efficiency 50%.

Chat with PDFs

Technology Used:

Python | Streamlit | LLAMA | JSON | PyCharm | Groq Cloud

Check out the requirements.txt in the GitHub, to review all the libraries used in this project.

Project Description:

This project reads all the PDFs in the data folder, creates a vectorstore, and enables interaction with the content of these PDFs. You can add PDFs with any type of content and use the chat feature to ask questions and receive answers.

As a case study, I downloaded all the PDFs from the Microsoft Licensing Program and processed them so that I could use the chatbot to query and get my answers. Understanding and complying with Microsoft Licensing Agreements can be quite challenging, often requiring an advanced understanding of complex terms. To help with this, I included PDF agreements from various Microsoft licensing programs. Using this chatbot has been a humorous yet effective way to grasp these agreements and get quicker answers.

However, I encountered some limitations. There were too many PDFs, and the free version of Groq restricted the number of tokens processed per minute and the size of the chunks. Consequently, I had to significantly reduce the number of files for processing. For this project, I used only three files from the website Microsoft Licensing Programs. If you can afford to increase your limits, you could potentially query the entire set of agreements using this tool.


Chat Reponse Screen has shown as an Image

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Chat with Any Website

Technology Used:

Python | Streamlit | LLAMA | JSON | PyCharm | Groq Cloud | Open AI

Check out the requirements.txt in the github, to review all the libraries used in this project.

Project Description:

This project aims to build a chatbot that can interact with websites, extract information, and communicate effectively in a user-friendly manner. It utilizes the capabilities of LangChain 0.1.0 and is integrated with a Streamlit GUI to enhance the user experience. You can provide any website for the chatbot to interact with. In this demonstration, I used the URL https://www.microsoft.com/licensing/docs/view/Licensing-Programs. I tested the bot by asking a question it might not know and another question it should know. Check out how it produced the answers!

I have build this project using LLAMA as well as OpenAPI. If you are using OpenAI, you have no option but to pay to complete this excersice. I liked this project so much, I built another one with LLAMA so that I can use it for free. I will provide link to both the project codes below.

Display of the ChatBot Responses

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Motor Vechile Accidents in NYC - Insights

Technology Used:

pandas | numpy | matplotlib | sklearn | seaborn | scipy | geopandas

Project Description:

In a recent exploratory data analysis (EDA) project, I examined motor vehicle accident data from data.gov to uncover patterns and trends within New York City's five boroughs. The dataset, comprising over 2 million records spanning the last 10 years, was filtered to focus on data from 2020 to 2023. Through comprehensive analysis, I identified several critical insights, highlighting the factors contributing to these accidents. The exercise revealed the frequency and distribution of accidents across different areas and pinpointed key variables like time of day, weather conditions, and high-risk locations. These findings are crucial for developing targeted strategies to improve road safety and reduce accident rates in New York City. The project primarily involved EDA and NULL value treatment to ensure data quality.


Incidents by Borough

The chart presents the number of accidents in each borough of New York City. Here’s the breakdown:

  • New York City: 143,538 accidents
  • Brooklyn: 96,903 accidents
  • Queens: 76,442 accidents
  • Bronx: 50,485 accidents
  • Manhattan: 46,096 accidents
  • Staten Island: 10,495 accidents
Key Observations:
  1. High Accident Rate in New York City:
  2. New York City has the highest number of accidents, indicating potentially higher traffic density and possibly more complex traffic patterns. Disclaimer: There was 143k records where the borough was NULL so I imputesd as New York City.
  3. Brooklyn and Queens: Following New York City, Brooklyn and Queens also have high accident rates, reflecting their large population sizes and busy streets.
  4. Relatively Lower Numbers in Bronx and Manhattan: While Bronx and Manhattan have significant numbers, they are considerably lower than Brooklyn and Queens. This might be due to differences in population density, traffic regulation, or infrastructure.
  5. Staten Island: Staten Island has the lowest number of accidents, which could be related to its lower population density and fewer busy intersections compared to other boroughs.
  6. Implications Safety Measures: These statistics could inform city planners and traffic management authorities on where to focus safety measures and resources.
  7. Policy Decisions: Policy decisions regarding traffic laws, road improvements, and public safety campaigns might be tailored more effectively based on this data.
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Vehicle Types and Incidents

Key Observations:

  1. High Incident Rates for Sedans and SUVs: Sedans and Station Wagons/SUVs show significantly higher incident frequencies compared to other vehicle types, suggesting their prevalent use in New York City.
  2. Commercial Vehicles: Vehicles such as Taxis, Pick-up Trucks, Box Trucks, and Buses also have notable incident numbers, reflecting their constant presence on the roads for commercial and public transportation purposes.
  3. Alternative Transportation: Bicycles and E-Bikes appear on the list, highlighting the role of alternative transportation in urban traffic incidents.
  4. Motorcycles and Heavy Trucks: Motorcycles and Tractor Trucks Diesel have lower but significant incident rates, emphasizing the risks associated with these vehicles due to their operational characteristics.
Insights:
  • Urban Planning and Safety: This data could be critical for urban planning and implementing traffic safety measures. Focused interventions might be necessary for Sedans and SUVs given their high incident rates.
  • Policy and Regulation: Policies targeting commercial vehicles and promoting safe cycling and motorcycling could also be valuable.

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Incidents By Year

Key Observations:

  • Increasing Trend in the Bronx: The number of accidents in the Bronx has steadily increased each year, with a noticeable jump from 2020 to 2021 and continuing upward in 2023.
  • Brooklyn and Manhattan: Both Brooklyn and Manhattan show a gradual increase in accidents over the years, with Brooklyn maintaining higher numbers than Manhattan.
  • Fluctuations in Queens: Queens also shows an upward trend, particularly between 2022 and 2023, which may indicate growing traffic or other influencing factors.
  • New York City Overall: The total number of accidents in New York City fluctuates but generally remains high, reflecting its dense and busy nature.
  • Staten Island: Although Staten Island has the lowest number of accidents, there is a slight increase observed each year.
Insights:
  • Focus on Bronx and Queens: The Bronx and Queens might require more focused traffic safety measures and infrastructure improvements due to their rising accident numbers.
  • Consistent Attention to Brooklyn and Manhattan: Continuous efforts to enhance traffic safety in Brooklyn and Manhattan are necessary to address their consistent accident rates.
  • Staten Island Monitoring: Monitoring traffic trends in Staten Island to preemptively manage the increasing accident trend could be beneficial.

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Accident Analysis

Key Observations:

  • Steady Increase in Fatalities:

    The number of fatalities in each borough has shown a gradual increase from 2020 to 2023.

  • Highest Fatalities in New York City:

    New York City consistently has the highest number of fatalities each year, which is not surprising given its dense population and high traffic volume.

  • Brooklyn and Queens:

    Both Brooklyn and Queens have high fatality rates, second only to New York City, indicating the need for more focused safety measures in these areas.

  • Lowest in Staten Island:

    Staten Island has the lowest number of fatalities, which could be due to its lower population density and fewer high-traffic areas.

Insights:
  • Targeted Safety Measures:

    There is a clear need for targeted safety measures and interventions, especially in New York City, Brooklyn, and Queens to address the rising fatality rates.

  • Infrastructure Improvements:

    Enhancing infrastructure and implementing stricter traffic regulations could potentially help reduce the number of fatalities across all boroughs.

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Conclusions:

Recommendations:

Implementing these recommendations could help address the increasing trends in accidents and fatalities, making the boroughs of New York City safer for all residents.

Job Post Response Email Generator

Technology Used:

Pandas | uuid | chromadb | Groq | LangChain | LLAMA

Project Description:

Harnessing the power of Groq and LangChain, this tool streamlines your job application process. Simply input the URL of a company's careers page job post, and it effortlessly extracts job listings. The generator then crafts personalized email responses tailored to each job description, complete with relevant portfolio links sourced from a vector database.
Imagine this scenario: You're browsing Dice.comand find a job post that excites you. Just provide the direct URL to the job listing to the LLM, and this program will automatically generate an email response. This response will highlight how your skills align with the job requirements, making your application stand out.


The Prompt Template used to Extract the information required

prompt_extract = PromptTemplate.from_template(
	"""
	### SCRAPED TEXT FROM WEBSITE:
	{page_data}
	### INSTRUCTION:
	The scraped text is from the career's page of a website.
	Your job is to extract the job postings and return them in JSON format containing the
	following keys: `role`, `experience`, `skills` and `description`.
	Only return the valid JSON.
	### VALID JSON (NO PREAMBLE):
	"""
)


The Prompt Template used to Generate the Email

prompt_email = PromptTemplate.from_template(
	"""
	### JOB DESCRIPTION:
	{job_description}

	### INSTRUCTION:
	You are Vijay, a Dev Ops Engineer. You have more than 12  years of experience 
	in this field. Currently you are working at Microsoft as a Senior Dev Ops Engineer.
	Over at Microsoft you have delivered several projects in this field successfully.
	Your job is to write a cold email to the client regarding the job mentioned above 
	describing your capability, your experience in fulfilling their needs.
	Also add the most relevant ones from the following links to showcase my portfolio: 
	{link_list} Remember you are Vijay, a Dev Ops Engineer. Do not provide a preamble.
	### EMAIL (NO PREAMBLE):
	"""
	)


The Resultant Email

Subject: Application for DevOps Release Engineer Position
Dear Hiring Manager,
I am writing to express my interest in the DevOps Release Engineer position at your esteemed organization. With over 12 years of experience in the field of DevOps, I am confident that I possess the skills and expertise required to excel in this role.
As a Senior DevOps Engineer at Microsoft, I have had the opportunity to work on numerous projects, delivering high-quality results and ensuring seamless deployment of applications. My expertise in Amazon Web Services, Git, Docker, Grafana, Pipeline management, Python, and other relevant tools aligns perfectly with the requirements of this position.
I am particularly drawn to this role because of the emphasis on managing and optimizing CI/CD pipelines, which is an area I have extensive experience in. My skills in Copado, AWS DevOps, and other relevant tools will enable me to streamline release processes and strengthen deployment strategies. In my current role, I have worked closely with development, QA, and operations teams to ensure a reliable, scalable, and secure cloud environment. I am well-versed in automation, monitoring, and continuous improvement, which are essential skills for this position.
To showcase my portfolio, I would like to share the following links:
* https://example.com/devops-portfolio
* https://example.com/devops-portfolio
* https://example.com/devops-portfolio
These links demonstrate my expertise in DevOps and my ability to deliver high-quality results.
I am excited about the opportunity to bring my skills and experience to your organization and contribute to the success of
your team. I would welcome the opportunity to discuss this position further and explain in greater detail why I am the ideal
candidate for this role. Thank you for considering my application.
Best Regards,
Vijay


Insights

  • With few lines of code we are able to use LLAMA Model to generate an email specific to a Job Post.
  • Through this simple project we are able to see the power of AI and its capabilities.
  • Get better at writing prompt templates. This helps in getting better results. Sometimes it is trial and error.
  • A job seeker can leverage technology to outsmart companies that use AI to filter applications, as technology is becoming increasingly accessible to everyone.

Claims Data Processing Time Prediction and Analysis

Technology Used:

pandas | numpy | matplotlib | sklearn | seaborn | | PyCaret | lightgbm

Project Description:

Context

One of the priority features the customer is looking to add to the product is claims data analytics. A crucial aspect of this project is comprehensive claims data analysis to identify trends, patterns, and anomalies.

High-Level Overview of Tasks
  • Acquire a suitable claims dataset from an open data source, such as the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) website.
  • Perform data cleaning and preprocessing to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the data for further analysis.
  • Conduct exploratory data analysis to gain an initial understanding of the data and identify any significant trends or patterns.
  • Implement machine learning algorithms to detect potential outliers or anomalies within the claims data.
  • Analyze the claims data over time to identify trends, seasonality patterns, and forecast future occurrences.
  • Develop and evaluate predictive models to optimize the claims process based on the insights gained from the data analysis.
  • Create interactive data visualizations to effectively communicate the results and insights of the data analysis.

Objective

  • Implement machine learning algorithms to detect potential outliers or anomalies within the claims data.
  • Analyze the claims data over time to identify trends, seasonality patterns, and forecast future occurrences.
  • Develop and evaluate predictive models to optimize the claims process based on the insights gained from the data analysis.
  • Create interactive data visualizations to effectively communicate the results and insights of the data analysis.
Tasks
  • Read the CSV file using a Python library (e.g., pandas).
  • Clean the data by removing irrelevant columns and handling missing values.
  • Preprocess the data, including converting categorical columns to numerical values, if necessary.
  • Save the cleaned dataset for further analysis in subsequent tasks.
Resources To get the claims data, download the CSV from the following location:Download


Claim Payment Amount Distribution

Data Analysis Observations

The image presents a combination of a boxplot and a histogram for the "CLM_PMT_AMT" (Claim Payment Amount) variable from a dataset. Here are the key observations:

  • Right-Skewed Distribution: The claim payment amounts are right-skewed, meaning there are more small payments with a few very large payments, creating a long tail towards higher values.
  • Outliers: Several outliers are present, as highlighted by the dots above the whiskers in the boxplot.
  • Average Payment: The average payment amount is around $9,573.

This kind of distribution is common in financial datasets where a small number of claims can be substantially larger than the majority. These insights can help in understanding the payment patterns and identifying potential areas for further investigation or adjustment in claims processing strategies.

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Claim Utilization Analysis

The image presents a bar plot titled "Top 10 Occurrences in Claim Utilization Days." Here are the key observations:

  • 3 Days: The most common claim utilization duration, with 10,896 occurrences.
  • 2 Days: The second most common, with 9,542 occurrences.
  • 1 Day: Third in frequency, with 8,130 occurrences.
  • 4 Days: A significant count with 7,936 occurrences.
  • 5 Days: Notable with 5,975 occurrences.
  • 9 Days: The least frequent among the top 10, with 1,892 occurrences.

The plot helps visualize the most common durations for claim utilization days, highlighting a trend where shorter claim durations (1-3 days) are more frequent compared to longer durations.

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High Value Claim Processing Time

This plot shows the frequency of high-value claims (over $22,000) and highlights that a significant number of these claims are processed within a week (3-7 days). This insight can be valuable for understanding the distribution of claim durations, especially for high-value claims.

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Primary Diagnosis Analysis

The image is a bar chart titled "Top 10 Occurrences in Primary Diagnosis in Percent." Here are the key observations:

  • 486: This code, representing Pneumonia (organism unspecified), is the most common primary diagnosis in the dataset, occurring 3.68% of the time.
  • V5789: This code, related to care involving other specified aftercare, appears 2.71% of the time.
  • 41401: This code, indicating Coronary atherosclerosis of native coronary artery, has a 2.51% occurrence rate.
  • 0389: This code, for unspecified septicemia, shows up 2.47% of the time.
  • 49121: This code, representing Obstructive chronic bronchitis with (acute) exacerbation, occurs 2.34% of the time.

These percentages represent the distribution of primary diagnoses in the dataset, highlighting common medical conditions that may require significant healthcare resources.

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Primary Reason for Admission

The image is a bar chart titled "Top 10 Occurrences in Admitting Diagnosis in Percent." Here are the key observations:

  • 78605: This code, representing Shortness of breath, is the most common admitting diagnosis, accounting for 4.14% of admissions.
  • 78650: This code, related to Chest pain, appears 4.08% of the time.
  • 486: This code, indicating Pneumonia (organism unspecified), has a 3.57% occurrence rate.
  • 4280: This code, for Congestive heart failure unspecified, shows up 2.76% of the time.
  • 7802: This code, representing Syncope and collapse, occurs 2.54% of the time.

This chart helps visualize the most common reasons for hospital admission, highlighting prevalent conditions that healthcare providers frequently encounter.

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Additional visualizations are included in the Python file available on GitHub.


Model Performance

The image shows a residual plot for a LightGBM Regressor model. Residual plots help us evaluate the performance of our model by showing the differences between observed and predicted values (residuals) on both the training and test datasets. Let's break down the key observations:

Key Elements:
  • Title: Residuals for LGBMRegressor Model.
  • Residuals Displayed: Two sets of residuals—one for the training data (in blue) and one for the test data (in green).
  • R² Values:
    • Train R² = 0.480: Indicates that 48% of the variability in the training data is explained by the model.
    • Test R² = 0.180: Indicates that only 18% of the variability in the test data is explained by the model.
  • Axes:
    • x-axis: Predicted values (ranging from 0 to 70).
    • y-axis: Residuals (ranging from -125 to 50).
Observations:
  • Right-Skewed Residuals: The distribution of residuals appears to be right-skewed, which might indicate that our model struggles with higher predicted values.
  • Test vs. Train Performance: The much lower R² value for the test data compared to the training data suggests that the model may not generalize well to unseen data, potentially overfitting the training data.
  • Clusters of Residuals: There's a noticeable pattern or cluster of residuals, particularly around the lower predicted values, which could indicate some systematic error or bias in the model.
Insights:
  • Generalization Issue: The model's performance on the test set is significantly lower than on the training set, indicating a need for model tuning, feature engineering, or even trying a different model.
  • Residual Distribution: Understanding the residual distribution can help in refining the model to handle outliers and extreme values more effectively.
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Feature Importance

The image shows a feature importance plot for a LightGBM model. Here’s what stands out:

Key Features and Their Importance:
  • CLM_PMT_AMT: The most important feature, with an importance score of approximately 700.
  • Month_Year: Second in importance, with a score around 600.
  • CLM_DRG_CD: Holds a significant importance, with a score near 500.
  • PRVDR_NUM: Features an importance score of approximately 400.
  • ICD9CODES: Shows an importance score around 300.
Insights:
  • Top Features: CLM_PMT_AMT, Month_Year, and CLM_DRG_CD are the top three features, indicating they have the most significant impact on the model's predictions.
  • Least Important Features: PROVIDER, CLM_PASS_THRU_PER_DIEM_AMT, and NCH_BENE_PTA_COINSRNC_LBLTY_AM have the least importance, suggesting they contribute minimally to the model's decisions.

Understanding which features influence the model the most can help in refining the model, improving its performance, and making it more interpretable.

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Learning Curve of LGBMRegressor

Looking at the learning curve for the LGBMRegressor, there's quite a gap between the training and cross-validation scores. This suggests that the model fits the training data well but struggles with generalizing to new, unseen data. This discrepancy is a classic sign of high variance in your dataset, meaning the model might be overfitting. Something to consider for improving its generalization.

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Validatation Curve for LGBMRegressor

This graph is a validation curve for an LGBMRegressor, plotting the training score and cross-validation score against the max_depth parameter.

Key Insights:
  • Training Score: As max_depth increases, the training score improves, indicating the model fits the training data better with deeper trees.
  • Cross-Validation Score: Initially, this also improves with max_depth, but after a certain point, it plateaus and slightly decreases, suggesting deeper trees don’t always help and can lead to overfitting.
  • Overfitting: The widening gap between the training and cross-validation scores at higher max_depth levels suggests overfitting—your model is too tuned to the training data and struggles with new data.

So, while increasing max_depth might seem like a good idea at first, there's a point where it starts to harm your model’s ability to generalize. Aim for the sweet spot where the cross-validation score is highest to balance bias and variance!

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Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions:

  • Claim Payment Patterns:
    • Right-Skewed Distribution: Claim payment amounts are generally small, with a few high-value outliers.
    • Significant Outliers: There are notable outliers in the data, which could affect the overall analysis and should be handled with care.
  • Claim Utilization Days:
    • Common Durations: Shorter claim durations (1-3 days) are more frequent.
    • High-Value Claims: For claims over $22,000, a significant number are processed within 3-7 days.
  • Primary and Admitting Diagnoses:
    • Frequent Diagnoses: Conditions like pneumonia, congestive heart failure, and shortness of breath are common reasons for hospital admission.
  • Model Performance:
    • Overfitting: The model shows signs of overfitting, as indicated by the widening gap between training and test scores at higher max_depth levels.
    • Feature Importance: Features such as claim payment amount, date-related information, and DRG codes significantly impact the model’s predictions.
Recommendations:
  • Handle Outliers:
    • Data Preprocessing: Apply techniques like log transformation or robust scaling to handle the right-skewed distribution and outliers in claim payment amounts.
  • Model Tuning:
    • Regularization: Use regularization techniques to reduce overfitting and improve model generalization.
    • Feature Engineering: Create new features or transform existing ones to capture more information and improve model performance.
  • Data Analysis and Visualization:
    • Interactive Visualizations: Develop interactive dashboards to explore the data and communicate insights effectively.
    • Trend Analysis: Regularly perform trend analysis to monitor changes in claim patterns and diagnose reasons for hospital admission.
  • Resource Allocation:
    • Prioritize Conditions: Focus on frequently occurring conditions like pneumonia and heart failure to optimize resource allocation and improve patient outcomes.

These steps will help improve the accuracy and robustness of the model, enhance the understanding of claim data patterns, and support better decision-making in the healthcare claims process.